| Article |
|---|
| Article name |
NATIONAL PROJECT \"DEMOGRAPHY\": STARTING POSITION OF TRANSBAIKAL REGION |
| Authors |
Romanov V.. , Romanova I.V. doctor of social sciences, il.romanova2010@yandex.ru |
| Bibliographic description |
|
| Category |
Politology |
| DOI |
314.152.2 |
| DOI |
10.21209/2227-9245-2019-25-9-79-96 |
| Article type |
scientific |
| Annotation |
The growing aggravation of the contradiction between the dynamics of population reproduction, its structure and the objective need of society actualizes the problem of population reproduction for the country in general and its administrative-territorial entities, in particular. The article is devoted to the definition of two starting demographic indicators of the Transbaikal territory (the total fertility rate and death rate of the population older than working age) in the national project “Demography”. The solution of the problem was carried out on the basis of application of general scientific research methods in the framework of comparative, logical and statistical analyses. On the basis of a comparative analysis of age-specific birth of women in the Transbaikal Region over the period 1990–2018, the authors have identified a trend of a significant strength reduction of the contribution to total fertility of the two main reproductive cohorts (total 20...29 years), and a displacement of the peak of fertility of cohorts of women 20 to 24 years in the next 25...29 years. The steady dynamics of reducing the number of the main reproductive cohorts of the female population of the Transbaikal territory due to migration loss-is about five thousand annually-was also established. The forecast of the number of women of reproductive ages for 2019 is 111.5 thousand. In the context of municipalities of the Transbaikal territory the territorial differentiation of two demographic indicators is given: fertility rates and migration loss. Its analysis of the positive set of indicators has revealed only two of the 29 municipal districts – Borzinsky and Nerchensky, the negative one – Kalarsky.
The calculations of the total fertility rate for the period 2012–2018 are given, the forecast of this indicator for 2019 (1.63 %) is given, which is taken as a starting point for the national project. Achieving the project level (1.7 %) is recognized as an extremely difficult task requiring immediate drastic measures. The article presents the estimates of mortality rates of the population of the Transbaikal territory over the age of the able-bodied for the period 2011–2018, the forecast for 2019 is 39.92 %, with the project value for 2024 is 36.1. According to the authors, it is almost impossible to achieve this value in the conditions of the Transbaikal region. When implementing these tasks, the authorities of the region should be ready for simultaneous implementation of preventive measures to minimize a number of social risks
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| Key words |
Keywords: population reproduction; Transbaikal territory; national project \"Demography\"; starting indicators; reproductive age groups of women; fertility rate; mortality rate; comparative analysis; migration loss of population; forecast; municipal districts |
| Article information |
Romanov V., Romanova I. National project “Demography”: Starting position of the Transbaikal Region // Transbaikal State University Journal, 2019, vol. 25, no. 9, pp.79-96 |
| References |
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