| Article |
|---|
| Article name |
METHODS FOR ESTIMATION AND FORECASTING SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES |
| Authors |
Nekrasova T.. doctor of economics, professor, tatjana.nekrasova@gmail.comPupentsova S.. candidate of economic sciences, assistant professor, pupentsova_sv@spbstu.ruAksenova, doctor of economics, professor, St. Petersburg Polytechnic University of Peter the Great, E.. Postgraduate Student, odo@spbstu.ru |
| Bibliographic description |
|
| Category |
Economics |
| DOI |
338.47 |
| DOI |
10.21209/2227-9245-2018-24-10-108-116 |
| Article type |
scientific |
| Annotation |
It was noted that in Russia, as well as throughout the world, the market of telecommunication services is actively expanding, which allows us to provide fast, uninterrupted, high-quality and reliable information exchange. In this regard, cellular companies are faced with the problem of assessing the capacity of the market, both demand and supply. The construction of such forecasts is necessary to determine the directions of investment activity of a cellular communication company. The methods for assessing the demand and supply of telecommunications companies are considered. The factors affecting the volume of demand for telecommunications services (changes in prices for telecommunications services, presence of competitors, size of inflation, incomes of population, variety of telecommunications services offered, quality of services, demographic situation), and factors affecting the supply (resource prices, level of production development, tax situation, prices of possible substitutes for telecommunications services). The methods of demand forecasting are highlighted: quantitative and qualitative. Quantitative methods of demand forecasting are noted, such as time series extrapolation, forecast for average percentage of demand, forecast, based on moving average, exponential weighted average, Holt method, Brown double smoothing, Brown adaptive smoothing, analytical, economic and mathematical models, combined. Qualitative methods of demand forecasting are designated: Delphi, brainstorming, scenario development. The following quantitative methods for forecasting telecommunications services are highlighted: the least squares method, regression-correlation analysis, method for calculating the average value, moving average, exponential smoothing, moving signal method. A brief description of these methods is given from the point of view of application for the telecommunication services market. It has been established that the analytical method is the most practically feasible for forecasting the demand for cellular services and determining in the future the forecast value of investments. It is noted that the most preferable for forecasting the offer of telecommunication services of cellular communication is the exponential smoothing method. Directions for further research should follow the path of finding new markets and determining their volumes. |
| Key words |
telecommunications; services; cellular; demand volume; volume of offers; forecasting; methods; qualitative methods; quantitative methods; information
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| Article information |
Nekrasova T., Pupentsova, S., Aksenova, E. The methods for estimation and forecasting of supply and demand for telecommunication services // Transbaikal State University Journal, 2018, vol. 24, no. 10, pp.108-116 |
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