| Article |
|---|
| Article name |
Forecasting of Some Macroeconomic Indicators of the World Community Countries (Using the Gretl Program) |
| Authors |
Galiakhmetova A.M. Candidate of Economics, Associate Professor, Financial Analytics and Behavioral Economics department, agaliahmetova@ieml.ruLatynina N.A. Senior Lecturer, Financial Analytics and Behavioral Economics department, nlatynina@ieml.ru |
| Bibliographic description |
Galiakhmetova A. M., Latynina N. A. Forecasting of some macroeconomic indicators of the world community countries (using the Gretl program) // Transbaikal State University Journal. 2025. Vol. 31, no. 4. P. 114–126. DOI: 10.21209/2227-9245-2025-31-4-114-126 |
| Category |
Economy |
| DOI |
330.101.541:[339.9:004] |
| DOI |
10.21209/2227-9245-2025-31-4-114-126 |
| Article type |
Original article |
| Annotation |
In the context of rapidly evolving digital transformation, a non-traditional approach to assessing the level of
development and formulating indicators for countries of the global community is required. The aim of the study
is to quantitatively evaluate the relationships between digital trade intensity and macroeconomic outcomes using
a panel of 11 countries (2021–2025) and to provide medium-term forecasts for GDP and EU budget flows.
The objects of the study are economic entities in the real sector of countries within the global community. The
subject of the study is the macroeconomic relationships between economic entities in EU countries aimed at
shaping and enhancing representative macro-indicators. The assessment tools employed dynamic and correlation-
regression analysis using the Gretl econometric package. The selected indicators for evaluation reflect
the volume of payments and the volume of commitments. The analysis utilizes panel regressions with fixed
effects and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS). Data on exports of digital services and the share of ICT goods,
EU budget commitments and payments, as well as eurozone macroeconomic aggregates, are used. Fixed-effects
panel models and instrumental variable estimations were applied, ensuring proper identification and robustness
checks of the derived relationships against alternative specifications. The results from the European
budget module demonstrate a stable relationship between commitments and actual payments, reflecting the
controllability of budget execution and its suitability for financial flow planning. Scenario-based projections
indicate a moderate expansion of economic activity, coupled with easing price pressures and a stabilizing
investment cycle. The practical value of the findings lies in the fact that a combination of measures aimed at
increasing the share of ICT goods in trade, accelerating the development of telecommunication networks, and
enhancing the maturity of digital public services is associated with growth in export revenues from digital services
and increased resilience of macroeconomic indicators. Recommendations are directed toward economic
policymakers and service-exporting companies, including the simplification of trade procedures, support for
infrastructure projects, and export readiness programs. |
| Key words |
macroeconomic indicators, gross domestic product, real economy sector, inflation, unemployment,
digital services, digital transformation, digital maturity index, traffic exchange point, forecasting |
| Article information |
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| References |
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