Article name Forecasting the Development of the Ural Manufacturing Industry in Conditions of Increasing External Financial Risks
Authors Romanova O.A. Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Chief Researcher,
Ponomareva A.O. Junior Researcher, Institute of Economics,
Bibliographic description Romanova O. A., Ponomareva A. O. Forecasting the Development of Urals Manufacturing Industry in the Context of Increasing Еxternal Financial Risks // Transbaikal State University Journal. 2024. Vol. 30, no. 2. P. 117–128. DOI: 10.2109/2227-9245-2024-30-2-117-128.
Category Economy
DOI 338.27, 336.02
DOI 10.2109/2227-9245-2024-30-2-117-128
Article type Original article
Annotation The article is devoted to the current problem of industrial development in the context of increasing external financial risks. A significant share of the production of Russian industrial enterprises is focused on exporting their products. Restrictions on foreign trade and sanctions may lead to threats to the implementation of planned product output on international markets. External financial threats to industry also include declining foreign investment and limited access to advanced technologies. The object of the study is industrial enterprises of the Ural Federal District, operating in conditions of increasing external financial risks. The purpose of the study is to construct a forecast for the industrial development of the Urals based on a simulation model that takes into account the influence of both internal growth factors and external financial risks. The fulfillment of this goal predetermines the solution of the following tasks: to determine the conditions and factors for the competitive development of industry in modern conditions; identify key indicators reflecting the dependence of industry on external and internal factors; build an exponential econometric model for forecasting the development of regions of the Ural Federal District in the context of the implementation of external financial risks – a reduction in imports and foreign investment; to determine the conditions and factors for leveling external financial risks for industrial enterprises of the Urals The study used methods of statistical, comparative and structural analysis. To build the model, the multiple linear regression (MLS) method has been used. The work uses available data from the Federal Customs Service and the Federal Statistics Service for the period 2013-2020. As a result of assessing the parameters of the obtained regression models, the hypothesis about the significant average statistical impact of external financial threats (imports and foreign investments) on the manufacturing and mining production of the subjects of the Ural Federal District has not been confirmed. The results of the study can serve as a guide for further study of the impact of external financial risks on the development of regional industrial systems.
Key words industry, sanctions, external financial risks, industrial region, modeling, forecast, forecast, industrial policy, regional aspects of industrial development, digital transformation of industry, threats
Article information
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