| Annotation |
The paper conducts empirical and econometric analysis of functioning of the market of operators of cellular communication. An overview of the major participants and dynamics of their development in the market are presented. A non-linear regression model of prices dependence on services of cellular operators from parameters such as standard of living (average income level of the population), degree of competition and demand for telecommunications services in a particular region, has been constructed. Using a non-linear regression models it has been proved that the influence of these factors on the cost of communication services in the region is strong. As research tools of the markets with limited competition simulation is proposed. It is proved that for the cellular communications market, the most effective method of research is the construction of agent-based simulation model. In the framework of the simulation model three types of agents are designed: main (market), client and operator. The client behavior is described using object-oriented approach in the notation of state diagrams. Logic models are presented in such a way that a potential client goes into a state visit to the point of sale, when receiving messages from acquaintances or under the influence of advertising, but the current client goes into a state visit to the point of sale if you receive a message, when dissatisfaction with the quality of the connection or based growth curve of the penetration. Using the principles of multi-agent systems, the author has designed and implemented a system in the AnyLogic program, allowing carrying out qualitative analysis of markets with limited competition, in particular, the cellular market. The notation of system dynamics is used for simulation and calculation of financial indicators, indices, information of welfare and quality. The model was tested for the city of Yekaterinburg |
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