| Article |
|---|
| Article name |
Economic Basis for Forecasting the Volume of Bulk Cargo Shipping |
| Authors |
Marchenko S.S. candidate of economic sciences, associate professor, march-serr@yandex.ru |
| Bibliographic description |
|
| Category |
Economics |
| DOI |
338.27 |
| DOI |
10.21209/2227-9245-2022-28-3-105-111 |
| Article type |
|
| Annotation |
This article deals with the actual problem of planning and forecasting the development of sea transportation of bulk cargoes; the solution of this problem in the modern conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic is especially significant. The author has created and researched a set of statistical data on the world sea transportation of the three main bulk cargoes, which include iron ore, coal and grain.
A linear diagram with areas was formed, which visually characterizes the structure of sea transportation of the main bulk cargoes, as well as positive trends in its change over 37 years. The average annual growth rate of the maritime transportations of the considered cargo types was analyzed.
A correlation field for sea transportations of the main bulk cargoes for the last 39 years has been constructed. An econometric model was developed, characterizing a linear relationship between the world volume of sea transportations of basic bulk cargoes and the year of their realization, which can be practically used by domestic shipping companies in planning their future financial results.
The purpose of the research. Creation of an economic-mathematical model, which will be the methodological basis for forecasting the global volume of marine transportation of basic bulk cargoes when making management decisions by domestic shipping companies in the development of their bulk fleet.
Methods. General scientific methods of system analysis and synthesis, methods of mathematical statistics are used in the given research.
Results. The economic-mathematical model of forecasting the global volume of sea transportation of iron ore, coal and grain has been developed and used to define a possible value of sea transportation of the main bulk cargoes for 2025, which will increase by 2.4% compared to 2019.
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| Key words |
Keywords: sea transportation, mathematical model, forecasting, bulk cargos, planning, shipping companies, development strategy, volume growth, expert assessments, COVID-19 pandemic |
| Article information |
Marchenko S. Economic Basis for Forecasting the Volume of Bulk Cargo Shipping // Transbaikal State University Journal, 2022, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 105-111. DOI: 10.21209/2227-9245-2022-28-3-105-111 |
| References |
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| Full article | Economic Basis for Forecasting the Volume of Bulk Cargo Shipping |
