| Annotation |
The author has researched the most promising options for the implementation of resource projects in the Jewish Autonomous Region and their impact on the economy of the region. Scenarios for the development of resource projects from export of raw materials to various stages of redistribution on the territory of the region are considered. The author proves and practically realizes the application of the cognitive modeling technique to assess the impact of possible scenarios of resource development on the region’s economy. Based on model calculations, quantitative estimates of the effects of resource and related projects are obtained, taking into account scenario conditions. The estimates obtained made it possible to catch the influence of internal and external factors in the development of the region on the basis of the available deposits of mineral resources. Based on the results of the study, the author, firstly, practically implements an approach based on cognitive modeling to assess various scenarios of resource development in the region. The possibilities and specificity of the application of this type of models for the task of predicting the dynamics of the socio-economic system of the region under the influence of various factors are shown. Secondly, the calculated estimates proved the assumption that the only direct effects of the development of natural resources are insufficient to achieve sustainably high rates of economic development in the Jewish Autonomous Region. The most attractive estimates of the growth of the regional economy were calculated for scenarios in which the production of processed products of extracted raw materials is set as the basic direction for the development of resource projects. Thirdly, the apparatus of cognitive modeling made it possible to identify and quantify the role of environmental factors (institutional, economic and geopolitical), which can become both stimulators and barriers to the implementation of various resource scenarios for the development of the Jewish Autonomous Region |
| References |
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